As tensions between the United States and Iran spiral toward their most dangerous point in years — punctuated by President Trump’s threat to bomb a longstanding American ally, Oman, over its mediating role — India finds itself once again navigating the delicate art of strategic neutrality. New Delhi has said little publicly about the unfolding crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and that silence is not accidental. It reflects a foreign policy tradition India has cultivated for decades: engage all sides, alienate none, and protect national interest above ideological alignment.
For India, the stakes in this crisis are not abstract. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most consequential chokepoints for the country’s energy security. A significant share of India’s crude oil imports has historically transited through this narrow waterway, and any prolonged disruption — whether from Iranian restrictions, American military posturing, or the broader collapse of shipping traffic reported in recent days — carries direct consequences for Indian fuel prices, inflation, and industrial output. When maritime transits through Hormuz fall from over a hundred vessels a day to a handful, as they reportedly have, the ripple effects reach far beyond the Gulf.
A Familiar Balancing Act
India’s relationship with both Iran and the Gulf Arab states, including Oman, has long been built on pragmatism rather than partisanship. Iran remains important to India’s regional connectivity ambitions, particularly through the Chabahar port project, which offers India an alternative trade route to Central Asia that bypasses Pakistan. At the same time, India’s ties with the United States have deepened substantially over the past two decades, spanning defence cooperation, technology partnerships, and a shared strategic outlook on China. Layered on top of this is India’s relationship with Oman itself — a country with which India shares deep historical, cultural, and defence ties, including naval access arrangements that have quietly supported India’s own maritime security interests in the Arabian Sea.
This is precisely why Trump’s threat against Oman puts India in a delicate position. Oman is not a peripheral actor for India; it is a trusted partner. Yet India is unlikely to publicly criticize Washington, given the breadth and importance of the India-US relationship. Instead, New Delhi’s likely approach will be the one it has used throughout the Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical flashpoints: measured statements calling for de-escalation and dialogue, without explicitly assigning blame to any party.
Energy Security as the Central Concern
Beyond diplomatic optics, the practical concern for Indian policymakers is energy security. India has spent recent years diversifying its crude oil sources, increasing imports from Russia, the United States, and West Africa precisely to reduce overdependence on any single supply route. This diversification strategy may prove valuable if Hormuz-related disruptions persist, cushioning India from the kind of sharp price shocks that a full closure of the strait would otherwise cause. Even so, a sustained disruption would still test the limits of that diversification, given how deeply intertwined global oil markets remain.
Indian refiners and shipping companies will also be watching insurance costs and vessel availability closely. Rising war-risk premiums for tankers transiting the Gulf, a common consequence of escalating regional tensions, tend to filter through to fuel costs domestically, even for cargoes that do not pass through Hormuz directly.
The Diaspora Dimension
There is also a human dimension to this crisis that India cannot ignore. Millions of Indian nationals live and work across the Gulf states, including in Oman and other countries bordering the strait. Past regional crises have required India to launch large-scale evacuation efforts, and policymakers will be conscious of contingency planning should the situation deteriorate into a broader regional conflict. Ensuring the safety of this diaspora, while maintaining open channels of communication with Gulf governments, will remain a quiet but significant priority for Indian diplomacy in the weeks ahead.
Strategic Autonomy in Practice
What this crisis ultimately underscores is the continuing relevance of India’s doctrine of strategic autonomy — the idea that India need not choose sides in every global conflict, but can instead engage multiple powers on the basis of its own interests. Critics of this approach sometimes describe it as fence-sitting, but its defenders argue it has served India well, allowing the country to maintain working relationships with the US, Russia, Iran, and Gulf Arab states simultaneously, even when those actors are themselves at odds with one another.
As the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz deepens, India’s task will be to continue this balancing act with careful diplomacy: protecting its energy interests, safeguarding its citizens abroad, and preserving its relationships across a fractured region — all without being drawn into a conflict that is, fundamentally, not its own.
— dailyArchives Editorial (Dhruba Deka)