Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a second round after neither candidate won an outright majority on 4 October. Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro finished first with about 47.5 percent of valid votes, ahead of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on roughly 44.7 percent, with just over 97 percent of ballots counted. The two will meet in a runoff on 25 October after emerging from a field of twelve candidates.
The result was a surprise. Most polls had predicted that Lula would lead the first round, and a Quaest survey in late September showed him ahead 39 percent to 34 percent. Bolsonaro, who said he had expected to win outright, called the outcome a sign that Brazilians want change. Lula, who is 80 and seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, described the result as unexpected and told supporters a new campaign begins immediately. The right also performed strongly elsewhere, including a Senate seat for Michelle Bolsonaro, Flavio’s stepmother.
Polls before the first round showed the runoff as essentially a dead heat, with Quaest putting the two level at 42 percent each. The campaign has centred on the cost of living, corruption and public security. Flavio is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest over a coup plot, and he has said he would pardon his father if elected. He is also seen as an ally of US President Donald Trump.
International politics is now part of the story. Lula has accused Washington of trying to influence the vote, a claim the United States disputes, and the US has suspended consular services in Brazil during the campaign. Markets have tracked the polls closely, because a change of government would signal a sharp shift in economic and foreign policy for Latin America’s largest economy.