Brazil’s presidential runoff on 25 October is now too close to call. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro finished first in the 4 October first round with 47.03 percent of valid votes against 45.16 percent for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the narrowest gap between the top two since the return to democracy, according to Latin Times. Flavio Bolsonaro has led most runoff polls since, but his lead has narrowed.
Three surveys published between 18 and 20 October show how close the race is. AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, released on 19 October, put Bolsonaro at 51.1 percent and Lula at 48.9 percent among valid votes, with a margin of error of one point. Its gap was 5.6 points in the previous wave. Real Time Big Data, released on 20 October, had Bolsonaro on 52 percent and Lula on 48. Vox Brasil, fielded before the debate, had Lula ahead, 51 to 49. Pollsters differ on methods, and several results are within their margins of error.
The two candidates met for the first time in the campaign on 18 October at a debate in Sao Paulo. Lula challenged Bolsonaro to release banking and phone records for both candidates and their families. Bolsonaro said he had nothing to hide but did not accept the proposal outright. Lula also raised an alleged funding link between Bolsonaro and the former owner of the collapsed Banco Master, a matter Bolsonaro has called a “closed chapter”. Cost of living dominated the middle of the debate. Lula afterwards called the debate’s quality “very low”. Commentators judged Lula more combative and Bolsonaro calmer.
Around 6.5 percent of voters were reported as undecided, and Vox Brasil found 45.3 percent saying they would not vote for either candidate. Turnout and spoiled ballots could therefore matter. A second debate on TV Globo is scheduled for 23 October, giving both camps one final chance to move the numbers.