Israelis go to the polls on 27 October, in the first national election since the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023. Voters will elect the 120-seat Knesset, and the leader best able to form a coalition becomes prime minister.
The most recent poll I could find is dated late July, so it should be read as a snapshot rather than a forecast. A Channel 12 survey then showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot tied at 38 percent each as preferred leader, after Eisenkot led 43 to 34 earlier that month. Seat projections gave Eisenkot’s Yashar party 23 seats, ahead of Likud on 22. The anti-Netanyahu bloc, excluding Arab parties, was projected at 60 seats, one short of a majority, against 50 for Mr Netanyahu’s bloc, with Arab parties on 10. Thirty-two percent of voters named the handling of the multi-front war as their top concern, and 25 percent the cost of living.
The campaign unfolds against continuing violence. Gaza health officials say more than 73,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023, including over 1,200 since a ceasefire in October 2025. On 15 October, Palestinian officials said Israeli strikes killed four people in Gaza. A deal to supply 12 Apache helicopters to Israel, worth about 1 billion dollars, was also reported that week. Hamas leader al-Hayya has accused all Israeli parties of using Gaza’s suffering for their campaigns, according to an Arab News report.
For many Israelis the vote is a referendum on Mr Netanyahu’s handling of the war and its aftermath. Coalition arithmetic, not the headline vote share, will decide the result, and a result without a clear majority could lead to weeks of bargaining. Since polls from three months ago may no longer hold, the final days of the campaign matter.