Arab political parties could play a decisive role in Israel’s upcoming election, as new opinion polls suggest that the opposition bloc seeking to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leading but remains short of the seats needed to form a government on its own.
According to a poll-of-polls published by The Jerusalem Post, the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Lapid, and Naftali Bennett is tied with Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc at 54 seats each in the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. With 61 seats required for a majority, neither camp is currently positioned to govern independently.
The key difference lies with Israel’s Arab parties, which are projected to secure around eight seats. That number could make them the political kingmakers in a closely contested election, giving them significant influence over who ultimately forms the next government.
The prospect reflects a changing political landscape in Israel. In previous elections, Arab parties often remained outside coalition negotiations or played a limited role in government formation. However, the current numbers suggest their support could become essential if the opposition hopes to replace Netanyahu after years of political polarisation.
For the opposition, cooperation with Arab parties may offer the most realistic path to crossing the majority threshold. Such an arrangement would not necessarily require Arab parties to join a governing coalition formally, but their external support could prove decisive in confidence votes and coalition-building efforts.
Netanyahu’s bloc, meanwhile, continues to rely on support from right-wing and religious parties. While retaining a loyal political base, current polling indicates that the bloc is struggling to expand beyond its traditional support levels.
The election is being closely watched both inside Israel and internationally because of its potential impact on the war in Gaza, relations with regional neighbours, and broader Middle East diplomacy. As campaigning enters its final stages, the balance of power may ultimately depend on the performance and negotiating strength of parties that have historically operated on the margins of Israeli coalition politics.
With neither major bloc close to a clear majority, Arab parties could find themselves holding the key to Israel’s next government.