India is on course to overtake China in the number of affluent consumers by 2036, a shift that could redraw the map of global consumer spending and give companies a powerful new reason to look beyond China for their next big growth market.
The number of Indians spending more than $90 a day is projected to rise to 10.8 crore by 2036, edging past China’s estimated 10.3 crore, according to a report by NielsenIQ (NIQ) and World Data Lab.
India currently has an estimated 2.6 crore consumers in this high-spending category. That means the country could add another 8.2 crore affluent consumers over the next decade, marking the largest increase among the markets highlighted in the report.
The projections are based on consumer spending rather than income or wealth. NIQ and World Data Lab classify people spending more than $90 a day as affluent consumers, while those spending between $13 and $90 a day are defined as core consumers.
The United States will remain the world’s biggest affluent consumer market, with an estimated 23.1 crore people in the category by 2036, well ahead of both India and China even as the gap between the top three narrows.
The numbers point to a larger transformation underway in India. The country is no longer merely being viewed as a market of vast population and low-cost consumption. Over the next decade, it could emerge as one of the world’s most important markets for both mass consumption and premium spending, reshaping how global companies prioritise growth strategies.
The findings suggest that as China’s consumer growth matures and slows, India’s expanding affluent class will increasingly become the focus of multinational firms seeking their next major source of demand, spanning sectors from retail and travel to premium goods and services.